Comment on "How effective and efficient are multiobjective evolutionary algorithms at hydrologic model calibration?" by Y. Tang et al., Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 289?307, 2006

International audienceNo abstract available

Generic dialogue modeling for multi-application dialogue systems

We present a novel approach to developing interfaces for multi-application dialogue systems. The targeted interfaces allow transparent switching between a large number of applications within one system. The approach, based on the Rapid Dialogue Prototyping Methodology (RDPM) and the Vector Space model techniques from Information Retrieval, is composed of three main steps: (1) producing finalized dia logue models for applications using the RDPM, (2) designing an application interaction hierarchy, and (3) navigating between the applications based on the user's application of interest

Adaptive model based control for wastewater treatment plants

In biological wastewater treatment, nitrogen and phosphorous are removed by activated sludge. The process requires oxygen input via aeration of the activated sludge tank. Aeration is responsible for about 60% of the energy consumption of a treatment plant. Hence optimization of aeration can contribute considerably to the increase of energy-efficiency in wastewater treatment. To this end, we introduce an adaptive model based control strategy for aeration called adaptive WOMBAT. The strategy is an improvement of the original WOMBAT, which has been successfully implemented at wastewater treatment plant Westpoort in Amsterdam. In this paper we propose to improve the physics-based model by introducing automatic parameter adaptation. In an experimental model setup the adaptive model based control algorithm proves to result in better effluent quality with less energy consumption. Moreover, it is able to react to the varying circumstances of a real treatment plant and can, therefore, operate without human supervision

Multiobjective inverse parameter estimation for modelling vadose zone water movement

Inverse modelling techniques for estimating unsaturated soil hydraulic parameters have become increasingly common in the past two decades. In contrast to single-objective parameter estimation which yields a single set of "best fit" parameters, multiobjective parameter estimation results in a number of Pareto optimal solutions which allow the analysis of the trade-off between different, sometimes conflicting, model objectives. In this study, modelling tools for identification of Pareto optimal sets of vadose zone water transport parameters are presented utilizing the numerical water and solute transport model HYDRUS-1D. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) values are calculated to measure the fit of the simulated and observed pressure head data at three different depths at a vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand

Ensemble evaluation of hydrological model hypotheses

It is demonstrated for the first time how model parameter, structural and data uncertainties can be accounted for explicitly and simultaneously within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. As an example application, 72 variants of a single soil moisture accounting store are tested as simplified hypotheses of runoff generation at six experimental grassland field-scale lysimeters through model rejection and a novel diagnostic scheme. The fields, designed as replicates, exhibit different hydrological behaviors which yield different model performances. For fields with low initial discharge levels at the beginning of events, the conceptual stores considered reach their limit of applicability. Conversely, one of the fields yielding more discharge than the others, but having larger data gaps, allows for greater flexibility in the choice of model structures. As a model learning exercise, the study points to a “leaking” of the fields not evident from previous field experiments. It is discussed how understanding observational uncertainties and incorporating these into model diagnostics can help appreciate the scale of model structural error

Towards reduced uncertainty in catchment nitrogen modelling: quantifying the effect of field observation uncertainty on model calibration

International audienceThe value of nitrogen (N) field measurements for the calibration of parameters of the INCA nitrogen in catchment model is explored and quantified. A virtual catchment was designed by running INCA with a known set of parameters, and field "measurements" were selected from the model run output. Then, using these measurements and the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA), four of the INCA model parameters describing N transformations in the soil were optimised, while the measurement uncertainty was increased in subsequent steps. Considering measurement uncertainty typical for N field studies, none of the synthesised datasets contained sufficient information to identify the model parameters with a reasonable degree of confidence. Parameter equifinality occurred, leading to considerable uncertainty in model parameter values and in modelled N concentrations and fluxes. Fortunately, combining the datasets in a multi-objective calibration was found to be effective in dealing with these equifinality problems. With the right choice of calibration measurements, multi-objective calibrations resulted in lower parameter uncertainty. The methodology applied in this study, using a virtual catchment free of model errors, is proposed as a useful tool foregoing the application of a N model or the design of a N monitoring program. For an already gauged catchment, a virtual study can provide a point of reference for the minimum uncertainty associated with a model application. When setting up a monitoring program, it can help to decide what and when to measure. Numerical experiments indicate that for a forested, N-saturated catchment, a fortnightly sampling of NO3 and NH4 concentrations in stream water may be the most cost-effective monitoring strategy. Keywords: INCA, nitrogen model, parameter uncertainty, multi-objective calibration, virtual catchment, experimental desig

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Parameter identification of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach

This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identification of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine specific crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modellingPeer reviewe